Natalya Skorlygina: although sanctions circumvention schemes are still working, market participants consider them rather short-term

19.04.2022       

The schemes that are working now, one way or another, involve the involvement of a third country, into which — either nominally, as in the false transit scheme, or actually (for further resale) — followed by a cargo that eventually ends up in Russia. In these schemes, importers rely primarily on such countries as Kazakhstan, Georgia, Armenia, Turkey. However, the "support partners" The Russian Federation is not always eager to act as an intermediary in trade schemes.
in order to avoid secondary sanctions and to minimize negative consequences… Kazakhstan does not intend to take any targeted steps to circumvent the sanctions. Kazakhstan has even made a separate website with a list of sanctioned goods and has developed rules indicating increased vigilance for Russian participation in supply chains.
The risks associated with working with Russia are already built into the cost and conditions of transportation. Agents in neutral, and sometimes even officially friendly, like Belarus, countries have switched to full prepayment when settling accounts with Russian companies. The situation is similar with those countries that are now seen as key trading partners. For example, Chinese freight forwarders require full prepayment, while local banks often refuse to process a payment if it is connected with Russia. There are big problems with making payments to and exporting goods from India, which cools attention to this promising market.
As a result, although sanctions circumvention schemes are still working, market participants see them as rather short-term. The viability of bypasses seems to depend only on the speed with which regulators of "unfriendly" countries will reveal them, and from the zeal of the latter. If, as follows from public statements, zeal is shown, then the simplest options will be blocked, market participants are in solidarity. In addition, all working schemes directly depend on the desire of the seller in the "unfriendly" country to cooperate with Russia, as well as the willingness of third parties to bear the risks of secondary sanctions. However, there are still places which can become a promising transport link due to the fact that they have nothing to lose,— for example, Iran, which is now being actively looked at by participants in the transit transportation market. Kommersant