The IMF compared the damage to the Russian economy from sanctions and falling oil prices

Sanctions slowed down the Russian economy by an average of 0.2 percentage points. annually from 2014 to 2018, IMF analysts calculated. But it was the fall in oil prices that did the most damage to economic growth.

The annual negative effect of sanctions on Russian GDP growth in the period from 2014 to 2018 averaged 0.2 p.p. This conclusion was made by the experts of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in the annual report on the Russian economy, published on the website of the organization.

The negative effect of falling oil prices averaged about 0.65 percentage points

0.1 percentage points) and contractionary monetary policy of Russia (minus 0.2 percentage points).

Together, all these factors — sanctions, oil, budgetary and monetary policy — took away almost 1.2 p.p. from the annual growth of the Russian economy, according to the IMF.

As noted in the report, in 2014-2018, Russia's annual GDP growth averaged 0.5%. And if all of the above factors did not exist, the average annual growth could reach 1.7%. “Sanctions, the unexpected decline in oil prices, and the reaction of financial markets and [economic] policies to the twin shock contributed to lower-than-expected growth since 2014,” — says in the document.

Thus, over five years, the Russian economy grew by only 2.5%, according to IMF estimates, and could theoretically grow by 5, 9% in the absence of external shocks. If the sanctions were removed and all other factors left, the economy would grow by 3.5% in five years.

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